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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Coming in On Texas'

davidmora3823 edited this page 2025-01-15 20:45:29 +00:00

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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, offering plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.

"All the money is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market also. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke with numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."

Despite the fact that respected cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
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"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.

While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be shocked if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State cash."

Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable cash pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly greater bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.

"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The total has gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What caused the line flip? Put simply, the wagering action.
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Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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